Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Deadline Approaches With Global Markets on Edge

As the clock ticks toward the July 9 expiration of President Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff moratorium, uncertainty is mounting across global markets. With no clear roadmap from the White House, businesses, investors, and foreign governments are left guessing what comes next—and whether a new round of tariff hikes could rattle the global economy.

On April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day” by Trump, the president unveiled sweeping “reciprocal” tariff rates, some as high as 50%, in an effort to pressure trade partners and rebalance U.S. trade deficits. The announcement triggered a sharp sell-off in equities and a bond market shake-up, prompting the administration to delay full implementation for 90 days to allow space for dealmaking.

That grace period is about to expire—12:01 a.m. ET on July 9—and the Trump administration has yet to confirm whether it will extend the pause or begin implementing the higher tariffs promised.

Global Stakes, Limited Deals

Despite months of talks and repeated claims that “dozens” of deals were imminent, only three agreements have been announced—and just two appear finalized. A pending deal with Vietnam, for example, would apply a 20% baseline tariff on imports, double the minimum 10% levies currently in place. Still, that’s less severe than the 46% tariff Vietnam faced under Trump’s original April framework.

The limited progress adds to the sense of confusion. On one hand, Trump has hinted that countries still in negotiations could be spared the steepest increases. On the other, he’s signaled that the administration might proceed with tariffs between 10% and 70% on countries that haven’t signed deals—no matter how talks are going.

“We can do whatever we want,” Trump told reporters last week. “I’d like to make it shorter. I’d like to just send letters out to everybody: ‘Congratulations, you’re paying 25%.’”

A Test of U.S. Economic Tolerance

Since the initial tariffs were imposed in April, the U.S. economy has shown surprising resilience. Stocks have hit record highs, inflation has remained steady, and consumer sentiment has improved—despite the across-the-board 10% tariff on most imported goods.

But economists warn that further escalation—particularly if tariff rates rise to 40% or more—could drag down growth, unsettle global supply chains, and eventually squeeze American consumers through higher prices.

What’s more, investors are looking for clarity. While Trump’s hardline tactics are now familiar, financial markets remain sensitive to uncertainty around trade policy. As UBS Global Wealth Management noted in a recent report, “We expect the administration to prioritize economic stability over maximalist tariffs, especially ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.”

What Comes Next?

Trump said letters detailing new tariff rates will be sent to roughly a dozen countries per day starting this week. The new rates, he added, would take effect August 1, giving countries a brief final window to strike last-minute deals.

The administration has left the door open for case-by-case flexibility—particularly for trading partners who are “negotiating in good faith.” However, it’s unclear how that goodwill will be judged or applied.

For now, the business community and U.S. trading partners remain in limbo. Whether July 9 marks the start of a new trade war or merely a tactical reset will depend on how the White House moves forward—and how the global economy responds.